UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16

Crystal Palace–AEK Larnaca

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 12 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Crystal Palace		AEK Larnaca
13	Shots	2
4	Shots on target	0
10	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
71%	Possession	29%
605	Passes	246
527	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Crystal Palace 1.91 · AEK Larnaca 0.89. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Crystal Palace 13 · AEK Larnaca 2; on target 4 and 0.
Crystal Palace kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

I. Pajac→

0.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.6%: “Crystal Palace to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for Crystal Palace, 0.89 for AEK Larnaca.
The highest double chance value is 82.7% (1X — Crystal Palace win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,241 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Crystal Palace to win61.6%

Draw21.1%

AEK Larnaca to win17.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Crystal Palace score1.91

Attack: Crystal Palace score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEK Larnaca score0.89

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–011.9%2–011.1%1–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.