UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16

AZ Alkmaar–Sparta Praha

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 12 March 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'AZ AlkmaarT. Parrott (assist: Ro-Zangelo Daal)
50'Sparta PrahaMatyáš Vojta (assist: Andy Irving)
87'AZ AlkmaarT. Parrott (assist: Ro-Zangelo Daal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AZ Alkmaar		Sparta Praha
27	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	3
18	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
445	Passes	350
362	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar 1.55 · Sparta Praha 1.32. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots AZ Alkmaar 27 · Sparta Praha 6; on target 7 and 3.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Gishamer→

4.60

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.3%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “Sparta Praha to win” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.32 for Sparta Praha.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,117 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AZ Alkmaar to win43.3%

Draw24.0%

Sparta Praha to win32.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.55

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Praha concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sparta Praha score1.32

Attack: Sparta Praha score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%1–09.2%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.