UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 32

Jagiellonia–Fiorentina

0–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'FiorentinaLuca Ranieri (assist: Jacopo Fazzini)
65'FiorentinaRolando Mandragora
81'FiorentinaRoberto Piccoli (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Jagiellonia		Fiorentina
11	Shots	13
0	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
71%	Possession	29%
590	Passes	241
505	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Jagiellonia 1.49 · Fiorentina 1.71. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Jagiellonia 11 · Fiorentina 13; on target 0 and 6.
Jagiellonia kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

S. Gishamer→

4.61

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “Jagiellonia to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Jagiellonia, 1.71 for Fiorentina.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,495 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Jagiellonia to win34.1%

Draw22.7%

Fiorentina to win43.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Jagiellonia score1.49

Attack: Jagiellonia score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fiorentina score1.71

Attack: Fiorentina score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Jagiellonia's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.1%1–28.9%2–17.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.