UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 6

Sigma Olomouc–Lech Poznan

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 18 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'Lech PoznanM. Ishak (assist: M. Gurgul)
45'Lech PoznanM. Ishak (penalty)
84'Sigma OlomoucJ. Kral (assist: Tihomir Kostadinov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sigma Olomouc		Lech Poznan
18	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	4
15	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	0
4	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
334	Passes	522
243	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sigma Olomouc 0.89 · Lech Poznan 1.60. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Sigma Olomouc 18 · Lech Poznan 7; on target 2 and 4.
Lech Poznan kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

P. Kolaric→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.4%: “Lech Poznan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.89 for Sigma Olomouc, 1.60 for Lech Poznan.
The highest double chance value is 78.7% (X2 — draw or Lech Poznan win).
These values were computed from 1,995 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sigma Olomouc to win21.3%

Draw24.3%

Lech Poznan to win54.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	2

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sigma Olomouc score0.89

Attack: Sigma Olomouc score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lech Poznan's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lech Poznan score1.60

Attack: Lech Poznan score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Sigma Olomouc's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.6%1–111.4%0–210.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.