UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4

Lech Poznan–Lausanne

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

67'Lech PoznanT. Ismaheel (assist: F. Jagiełło)
90'Lech PoznanY. Agnero (assist: T. Ismaheel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lech Poznan		Lausanne
6	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	13
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	7
1	Offsides	3
55%	Possession	45%
517	Passes	410
414	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lech Poznan 2.49 · Lausanne 0.96. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Lech Poznan 6 · Lausanne 17; on target 3 and 5.
Lech Poznan kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

S. Kringstad→

2.81

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.9%: “Lech Poznan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.49 for Lech Poznan, 0.96 for Lausanne.
The highest double chance value is 87.2% (1X — Lech Poznan win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,746 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lech Poznan to win70.9%

Draw16.3%

Lausanne to win12.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lech Poznan score2.49

Attack: Lech Poznan score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Lausanne's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lausanne score0.96

Attack: Lausanne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lech Poznan's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–09.8%2–19.4%3–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.