UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3

Lausanne–Omonia Nicosia

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Omonia NicosiaAngelos Neophytou (assist: Alpha Diounkou)
40'LausanneT. Bair (assist: B. Soppy)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lausanne		Omonia Nicosia
20	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
63%	Possession	37%
597	Passes	357
513	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lausanne 1.46 · Omonia Nicosia 1.59. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Lausanne 20 · Omonia Nicosia 7; on target 6 and 3.
Lausanne kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

E. Malcevs→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “Omonia Nicosia to win”. Second comes “Lausanne to win” at 35.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Lausanne, 1.59 for Omonia Nicosia.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,375 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lausanne to win35.6%

Draw23.4%

Omonia Nicosia to win41.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lausanne score1.46

Attack: Lausanne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Omonia Nicosia concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Omonia Nicosia score1.59

Attack: Omonia Nicosia score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lausanne's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.7%1–28.7%2–18.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.