UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3

AEK Athens FC–Shamrock Rovers

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

21'Shamrock RoversG. Burke (penalty)
90'AEK Athens FCL. Jović (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Shamrock Rovers
30	Shots	1
8	Shots on target	1
21	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	7
10	Corners	0
3	Offsides	4
80%	Possession	20%
621	Passes	161
546	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots AEK Athens FC 30 · Shamrock Rovers 1; on target 8 and 1.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (80%).

Referee

José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain→

5.04

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

Only 0 matches of data exist in this league before this date. A rating computed from that little data is nothing but noise.

8	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.