UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

Hamrun Spartans–Lausanne

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ta'Qali National Stadium, Ta'Qali

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'LausanneG. Diakite (assist: Kevin Mouanga)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hamrun Spartans		Lausanne
15	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	4
5	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
348	Passes	330
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hamrun Spartans 0.57 · Lausanne 1.99. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hamrun Spartans 15 · Lausanne 10; on target 1 and 5.

Referee

Henrik Nalbandyan, Armenia→

6.50

yellows per match

1.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.4%: “Lausanne to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.57 for Hamrun Spartans, 1.99 for Lausanne.
The highest double chance value is 90.2% (X2 — draw or Lausanne win).
These values were computed from 1,264 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hamrun Spartans to win9.8%

Draw18.8%

Lausanne to win71.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 941 of 1,254 predictions were correct (75.0%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hamrun Spartans score0.57

Attack: Hamrun Spartans score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lausanne's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lausanne score1.99

Attack: Lausanne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamrun Spartans concede 47% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–115.7%0–215.3%0–310.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.