UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

Shamrock Rovers–Celje

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

33'CeljeF. Kovačević (assist: V. Lisakovich)
40'CeljeF. Kovačević (assist: L. Bejger)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Shamrock Rovers		Celje
11	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
383	Passes	538
324	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Shamrock Rovers 11 · Celje 14; on target 3 and 4.
Celje kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Ondrej Berka, Czechia→

3.17

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

Only 0 matches of data exist in this league before this date. A rating computed from that little data is nothing but noise.

14	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.