UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

AEK Athens FC–Aberdeen

6–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 October 2025 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'AEK Athens FCA. Koita (assist: Orbelín Pineda)
18'AEK Athens FCA. Koita (assist: L. Rota)
27'AEK Athens FCN. Eliasson (assist: Orbelín Pineda)
55'AEK Athens FCR. Marin (assist: F. Pierrot)
81'AEK Athens FCL. Jović (assist: M. Gaćinović)
87'AEK Athens FCD. Kutesa

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Aberdeen
27	Shots	8
10	Shots on target	2
19	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
73%	Possession	27%
681	Passes	248
612	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 2.11 · Aberdeen 0.67. On the pitch: 6-0.
Shots AEK Athens FC 27 · Aberdeen 8; on target 10 and 2.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

Jasper Vergoote, Belgium→

5.40

yellows per match

0.60

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.3%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for AEK Athens FC, 0.67 for Aberdeen.
The highest double chance value is 89.3% (1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,369 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win71.3%

Draw18.0%

Aberdeen to win10.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score2.11

Attack: AEK Athens FC score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Aberdeen's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aberdeen score0.67

Attack: Aberdeen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.9%1–013.4%3–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.