UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

Shakhtar Donetsk–Legia Warszawa

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 October 2025 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

16'Legia WarszawaRafał Augustyniak
61'Shakhtar DonetskLuca Meirelles (assist: Y. Konoplya)
90'Legia WarszawaRafał Augustyniak

Match statistics

Match statistics
Shakhtar Donetsk		Legia Warszawa
11	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
2	Offsides	3
70%	Possession	30%
631	Passes	264
568	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Shakhtar Donetsk 11 · Legia Warszawa 11; on target 3 and 3.
Shakhtar Donetsk kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Gustavo Correia, Portugal→

7.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

Only 0 matches of data exist in this league before this date. A rating computed from that little data is nothing but noise.

9	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.