UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

BK Hacken–Rayo Vallecano

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 October 2025 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'Rayo VallecanoPep Chavarría · red card
15'Rayo VallecanoÁlvaro García (assist: Sergio Camello)
41'BK HackenJulius Lindberg (assist: Simon Gustafson)
55'BK HackenI. Brusberg (assist: Julius Lindberg)
90'Rayo VallecanoA. Rațiu (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
BK Hacken		Rayo Vallecano
10	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	5
1	Offsides	3
40%	Possession	60%
321	Passes	493
227	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: BK Hacken 0.96 · Rayo Vallecano 2.28. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots BK Hacken 10 · Rayo Vallecano 11; on target 4 and 4.
Rayo Vallecano kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Antoni Bandić, Bosnia & Herzegovina→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.3%: “Rayo Vallecano to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.96 for BK Hacken, 2.28 for Rayo Vallecano.
The highest double chance value is 85.2% (X2 — draw or Rayo Vallecano win).
These values were computed from 2,166 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

BK Hacken to win14.8%

Draw18.0%

Rayo Vallecano to win67.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

5	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals BK Hacken score0.96

Attack: BK Hacken score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score2.28

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: BK Hacken's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–210.1%1–29.8%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.