UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

Legia Warszawa–Samsunspor

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 2 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'SamsunsporA. Musaba (assist: Marius)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Legia Warszawa		Samsunspor
19	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	2
3	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
545	Passes	322
461	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Legia Warszawa 1.90 · Samsunspor 0.73. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Legia Warszawa 19 · Samsunspor 6; on target 2 and 2.
Legia Warszawa kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Jeremie Pignard, France→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.4%: “Legia Warszawa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.90 for Legia Warszawa, 0.73 for Samsunspor.
The highest double chance value is 86.0% (1X — Legia Warszawa win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,127 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Legia Warszawa to win65.4%

Draw20.7%

Samsunspor to win14.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Legia Warszawa score1.90

Attack: Legia Warszawa score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Samsunspor score0.73

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Legia Warszawa concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.0%2–013.0%1–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.