UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

Omonia Nicosia–FSV Mainz 05

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 2 October 2025 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

75'FSV Mainz 05N. Amiri (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Omonia Nicosia		FSV Mainz 05
8	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	12
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	8
3	Offsides	3
44%	Possession	56%
385	Passes	480
297	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Nicosia 1.29 · FSV Mainz 05 1.74. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Omonia Nicosia 8 · FSV Mainz 05 17; on target 3 and 2.
FSV Mainz 05 kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Milos Milanovic, Serbia→

8.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “FSV Mainz 05 to win”. Second comes “Omonia Nicosia to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Omonia Nicosia, 1.74 for FSV Mainz 05.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,633 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Nicosia to win28.9%

Draw22.9%

FSV Mainz 05 to win48.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Nicosia score1.29

Attack: Omonia Nicosia score 67% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.74

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Omonia Nicosia concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%1–29.4%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.