UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Arda Kardzhali–Raków Częstochowa

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 28 August 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Raków CzęstochowaPéter Baráth
59'Arda KardzhaliA. Vutov (penalty)
70'Arda KardzhaliGeorgi Nikolov · red card
90'Raków CzęstochowaIvi López
90+1'Arda KardzhaliD. Velkovski · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arda Kardzhali		Raków Częstochowa
8	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
432	Passes	409
336	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arda Kardzhali 0.96 · Raków Częstochowa 1.73. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Arda Kardzhali 8 · Raków Częstochowa 12; on target 3 and 7.

Referee

Igor Pajač, Croatia→

1.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.8%: “Raków Częstochowa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.96 for Arda Kardzhali, 1.73 for Raków Częstochowa.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (X2 — draw or Raków Częstochowa win).
These values were computed from 1,773 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arda Kardzhali to win21.2%

Draw23.1%

Raków Częstochowa to win55.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	3

2	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score0.96

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Raków Częstochowa concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Raków Częstochowa score1.73

Attack: Raków Częstochowa score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–112.1%1–110.9%0–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.