UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Rayo Vallecano–Neman

4–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 28 August 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'Rayo VallecanoÁlvaro García
66'Rayo VallecanoSergio Camello (assist: Álvaro García)
80'Rayo VallecanoJ. de Frutos (assist: Unai López)
89'Rayo VallecanoÁlvaro García

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rayo Vallecano		Neman
13	Shots	3
7	Shots on target	0
8	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	0
5	Offsides	2
69%	Possession	31%
527	Passes	239
428	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano 2.34 · Neman 0.40. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Rayo Vallecano 13 · Neman 3; on target 7 and 0.
Rayo Vallecano kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Jeremie Pignard, France→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.3%: “Rayo Vallecano to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.34 for Rayo Vallecano, 0.40 for Neman.
The highest double chance value is 95.0% (1X — Rayo Vallecano win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,998 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rayo Vallecano to win81.3%

Draw13.7%

Neman to win5.0%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score2.34

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Neman concede 47% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Neman score0.40

Attack: Neman score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–017.7%1–015.3%3–013.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.