UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Brondby–Strasbourg

2–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 28 August 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Brøndby Stadion, Brondby

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'StrasbourgE. Emegha (assist: F. Lemaréchal)
40'StrasbourgI. Doukoure (assist: F. Lemaréchal)
45'BrondbyD. Wass
66'StrasbourgE. Emegha (assist: Diego Moreira)
86'BrondbyM. Gregoritsch

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brondby		Strasbourg
17	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
423	Passes	497
362	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brondby 1.47 · Strasbourg 1.21. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Brondby 17 · Strasbourg 9; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

Nenad Minaković, Serbia→

4.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Brondby to win”. Second comes “Strasbourg to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Brondby, 1.21 for Strasbourg.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,532 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brondby to win43.4%

Draw24.9%

Strasbourg to win31.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

5	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brondby score1.47

Attack: Brondby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Strasbourg's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Strasbourg score1.21

Attack: Strasbourg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brondby concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%1–010.4%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.