UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

CFR 1907 Cluj–BK Hacken

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 28 August 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dr. Constantin Rădulescu, Cluj Napoca

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'CFR 1907 ClujA. Paun

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CFR 1907 Cluj 3.16 · BK Hacken 0.92. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

Sebastian Gishamer, Austria→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.1%: “CFR 1907 Cluj to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.16 for CFR 1907 Cluj, 0.92 for BK Hacken.
The highest double chance value is 92.4% (1X — CFR 1907 Cluj win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,753 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CFR 1907 Cluj to win81.1%

Draw11.3%

BK Hacken to win7.6%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 491 of 585 predictions were correct (83.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — CFR 1907 Cluj win or draw92.4%

12 — any result other than a draw88.7%

X2 — draw or BK Hacken win18.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (11.3%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CFR 1907 Cluj score3.16

Attack: CFR 1907 Cluj score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: BK Hacken concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 3.16 goals.

How many goals BK Hacken score0.92

Attack: BK Hacken score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: CFR 1907 Cluj's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–08.9%2–08.4%3–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.