UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Beşiktaş–Lausanne

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 28 August 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'LausanneN. Butler-Oyedeji (assist: Kevin Mouanga)
46'BeşiktaşF. Uduokhai · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beşiktaş		Lausanne
12	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	8
9	Shots inside the box	12
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	8
3	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
463	Passes	385
366	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beşiktaş 2.00 · Lausanne 0.90. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Beşiktaş 12 · Lausanne 19; on target 3 and 8.
Beşiktaş kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Jakob Kehlet, Denmark→

2.72

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.3%: “Beşiktaş to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for Beşiktaş, 0.90 for Lausanne.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — Beşiktaş win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,712 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beşiktaş to win63.3%

Draw20.3%

Lausanne to win16.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	19

4	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beşiktaş score2.00

Attack: Beşiktaş score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Lausanne's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lausanne score0.90

Attack: Lausanne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beşiktaş concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–011.3%2–011.0%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.