UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Crystal Palace–Fredrikstad

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 21 August 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'Crystal PalaceJ. Mateta (assist: W. Hughes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Crystal Palace		Fredrikstad
25	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	0
10	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
74%	Possession	26%
588	Passes	209
495	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Crystal Palace 2.18 · Fredrikstad 0.76. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Crystal Palace 25 · Fredrikstad 5; on target 5 and 0.
Crystal Palace kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

Anastasios Papapetrou, Greece→

5.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.2%: “Crystal Palace to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.18 for Crystal Palace, 0.76 for Fredrikstad.
The highest double chance value is 88.1% (1X — Crystal Palace win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,015 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Crystal Palace to win70.2%

Draw17.9%

Fredrikstad to win11.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,222 predictions were correct (74.6%). Accuracy record →

4	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Crystal Palace score2.18

Attack: Crystal Palace score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fredrikstad's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fredrikstad score0.76

Attack: Fredrikstad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.6%1–011.8%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.