UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Celje–Baník Ostrava

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 21 August 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Z'dežele, Celje

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'CeljeMatěj Chaluš (own goal · assist: N. Iosifov)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celje 1.94 · Baník Ostrava 1.44. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

Elcin Masiyev, Azerbaijan→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.7%: “Celje to win”. Second comes “Baník Ostrava to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for Celje, 1.44 for Baník Ostrava.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,368 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celje to win49.7%

Draw21.5%

Baník Ostrava to win28.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,226 of 3,698 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Celje win or draw71.1%

12 — any result other than a draw78.5%

X2 — draw or Baník Ostrava win50.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.5%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.8%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celje score1.94

Attack: Celje score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Baník Ostrava's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Baník Ostrava score1.44

Attack: Baník Ostrava score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celje concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.2%2–19.2%1–06.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1368 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 103 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.