UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Levski Sofia–AZ Alkmaar

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 21 August 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'AZ AlkmaarI. Sadiq (assist: I. Jensen)
62'AZ AlkmaarT. Parrott

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levski Sofia		AZ Alkmaar
14	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
464	Passes	407
403	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levski Sofia 1.12 · AZ Alkmaar 0.97. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Levski Sofia 14 · AZ Alkmaar 12; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

Tamas Bognar, Hungary→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Levski Sofia to win”. Second comes “AZ Alkmaar to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Levski Sofia, 0.97 for AZ Alkmaar.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,737 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levski Sofia to win39.2%

Draw29.2%

AZ Alkmaar to win31.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levski Sofia score1.12

Attack: Levski Sofia score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.12 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score0.97

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levski Sofia concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.3%1–113.0%0–112.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.