UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Anderlecht–AEK Athens FC

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 21 August 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'AnderlechtK. Dolberg (assist: T. Hazard)
75'AEK Athens FCN. Eliasson
90+4'AEK Athens FCP. Mantalos · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Anderlecht		AEK Athens FC
20	Shots	10
10	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	10
7	Corners	0
1	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
498	Passes	410
438	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anderlecht 1.37 · AEK Athens FC 1.11. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Anderlecht 20 · AEK Athens FC 10; on target 10 and 5.
Anderlecht kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Jérôme Brisard, France→

7.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “Anderlecht to win”. Second comes “AEK Athens FC to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Anderlecht, 1.11 for AEK Athens FC.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,506 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anderlecht to win43.2%

Draw26.1%

AEK Athens FC to win30.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anderlecht score1.37

Attack: Anderlecht score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEK Athens FC score1.11

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–011.9%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.