UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Başakşehir–Universitatea Craiova

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 21 August 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Universitatea CraiovaA. Cicaldau (assist: A. Al Hamlawi)
61'Universitatea CraiovaC. Mora (assist: Oleksandr Romanchuk)
87'BaşakşehirFesty Ebosele

Match statistics

Match statistics
Başakşehir		Universitatea Craiova
14	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
72%	Possession	28%
564	Passes	220
505	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Başakşehir 1.12 · Universitatea Craiova 1.79. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Başakşehir 14 · Universitatea Craiova 15; on target 3 and 5.
Başakşehir kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

Juxhin Xhaja, Albania→

8.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.4%: “Universitatea Craiova to win”. Second comes “Başakşehir to win” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Başakşehir, 1.79 for Universitatea Craiova.
The highest double chance value is 77.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,935 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Başakşehir to win24.1%

Draw22.6%

Universitatea Craiova to win53.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Başakşehir score1.12

Attack: Başakşehir score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Universitatea Craiova concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Universitatea Craiova score1.79

Attack: Universitatea Craiova score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Başakşehir's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.6%0–110.1%1–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.