UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Wolfsberger AC–Omonia Nicosia

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 21 August 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: 28 Black Arena, Klagenfurt am Wörthersee

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Omonia NicosiaSenou Coulibaly (assist: C. Eiting)
30'Wolfsberger ACChibuike Nwaiwu (assist: T. Ballo)
88'Wolfsberger ACD. Zukic

Match statistics

Match statistics
Wolfsberger AC		Omonia Nicosia
18	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	5
3	Offsides	4
50%	Possession	50%
385	Passes	390
328	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Wolfsberger AC 1.62 · Omonia Nicosia 1.21. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Wolfsberger AC 18 · Omonia Nicosia 15; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

Antonio Nobre, Portugal→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Wolfsberger AC to win”. Second comes “Omonia Nicosia to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Wolfsberger AC, 1.21 for Omonia Nicosia.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,139 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Wolfsberger AC to win47.2%

Draw23.9%

Omonia Nicosia to win28.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Wolfsberger AC score1.62

Attack: Wolfsberger AC score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Omonia Nicosia concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Omonia Nicosia score1.21

Attack: Omonia Nicosia score 50% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Wolfsberger AC concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.21 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%1–09.9%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.