UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Rosenborg–FSV Mainz 05

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 21 August 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'FSV Mainz 05N. Amiri
43'RosenborgD. Islamovic (penalty)
90'RosenborgO. Saeter (assist: O. Selnaes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rosenborg		FSV Mainz 05
13	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
40%	Possession	60%
359	Passes	536
283	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rosenborg 1.15 · FSV Mainz 05 1.79. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Rosenborg 13 · FSV Mainz 05 13; on target 8 and 4.
FSV Mainz 05 kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Oleksiy Derevinskyi, Ukraine→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.8%: “FSV Mainz 05 to win”. Second comes “Rosenborg to win” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Rosenborg, 1.79 for FSV Mainz 05.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,783 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rosenborg to win24.7%

Draw22.5%

FSV Mainz 05 to win52.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rosenborg score1.15

Attack: Rosenborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.79

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rosenborg's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%0–19.8%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.