UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Austria Vienna–Baník Ostrava

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 14 August 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Baník OstravaE. Prekop (penalty)
67'Austria ViennaPhilipp Wiesinger

Match statistics

Match statistics
Austria Vienna		Baník Ostrava
14	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
533	Passes	334
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Austria Vienna 1.43 · Baník Ostrava 1.20. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Austria Vienna 14 · Baník Ostrava 5; on target 5 and 2.
Austria Vienna kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Juxhin Xhaja, Albania→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Austria Vienna to win”. Second comes “Baník Ostrava to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Austria Vienna, 1.20 for Baník Ostrava.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,293 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Austria Vienna to win42.9%

Draw25.3%

Baník Ostrava to win31.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Austria Vienna score1.43

Attack: Austria Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Baník Ostrava's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Baník Ostrava score1.20

Attack: Baník Ostrava score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Austria Vienna concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%1–010.7%0–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.