UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Dundee Utd–Rapid Vienna

2–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 14 August 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided on penalties: it was level after 90 minutes and extra time, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.4% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Dundee UtdM. Watters (assist: W. Ferry)
42'Dundee UtdM. Watters (penalty)
63'Rapid ViennaJ. Antiste (assist: Bendegúz Bolla)
77'Rapid ViennaE. Kara (assist: N. Wurmbrand)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dundee Utd		Rapid Vienna
17	Shots	21
6	Shots on target	7
11	Shots inside the box	15
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	11
1	Offsides	0
39%	Possession	61%
390	Passes	599
269	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dundee Utd 1.45 · Rapid Vienna 1.41. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Dundee Utd 17 · Rapid Vienna 21; on target 6 and 7.
Rapid Vienna kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Anastasios Sidiropoulos, Greece→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “Dundee Utd to win”. Second comes “Rapid Vienna to win” at 37.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Dundee Utd, 1.41 for Rapid Vienna.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,164 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dundee Utd to win38.6%

Draw24.3%

Rapid Vienna to win37.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dundee Utd score1.45

Attack: Dundee Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rapid Vienna's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rapid Vienna score1.41

Attack: Rapid Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dundee Utd's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–08.6%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.