UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Hammarby FF–Rosenborg

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 14 August 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'RosenborgD. Islamovic (assist: O. Selnaes)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hammarby FF 1.33 · Rosenborg 1.22. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

Vassilis Fotias, Greece→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “Hammarby FF to win”. Second comes “Rosenborg to win” at 34.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Hammarby FF, 1.22 for Rosenborg.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,731 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hammarby FF to win39.8%

Draw25.9%

Rosenborg to win34.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hammarby FF win or draw65.7%

12 — any result other than a draw74.1%

X2 — draw or Rosenborg win60.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.9%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hammarby FF score1.33

Attack: Hammarby FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rosenborg's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rosenborg score1.22

Attack: Rosenborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hammarby FF concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–010.8%0–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.