UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Başakşehir–Viking

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 13 August 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'VikingOnur Bulut (own goal)
40'BaşakşehirDavie Selke (assist: Eldor Shomurodov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Başakşehir		Viking
8	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
353	Passes	419
258	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Başakşehir 1.53 · Viking 1.79. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Başakşehir 8 · Viking 13; on target 3 and 4.
Viking kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Milos Milanovic, Serbia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “Başakşehir to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Başakşehir, 1.79 for Viking.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,928 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Başakşehir to win33.4%

Draw22.2%

Viking to win44.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Başakşehir score1.53

Attack: Başakşehir score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Viking concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viking score1.79

Attack: Viking score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Başakşehir's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.6%1–28.9%2–17.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.