UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Raków Częstochowa–Maccabi Haifa

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 7 August 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 17%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'Maccabi HaifaE. Azoulay (assist: Đ. Jovanović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Raków Częstochowa		Maccabi Haifa
14	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	3
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
437	Passes	364
366	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Raków Częstochowa 2.06 · Maccabi Haifa 0.97. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Raków Częstochowa 14 · Maccabi Haifa 6; on target 4 and 5.
Raków Częstochowa kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Robert Harvey, Ireland→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.8%: “Raków Częstochowa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.06 for Raków Częstochowa, 0.97 for Maccabi Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 82.7% (1X — Raków Częstochowa win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,579 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Raków Częstochowa to win62.8%

Draw20.0%

Maccabi Haifa to win17.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,274 of 2,042 predictions were correct (62.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	20

0	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Raków Częstochowa score2.06

Attack: Raków Częstochowa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score0.97

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Raków Częstochowa concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.97 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–010.2%1–010.2%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.