UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

FK Partizan–Hibernian

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 7 August 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'FK PartizanV. Đurđević · red card
40'HibernianM. Boyle (assist: Jordan Obita)
70'HibernianM. Boyle (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Partizan 1.61 · Hibernian 1.34. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

Philip Farrugia, Malta→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.1%: “FK Partizan to win”. Second comes “Hibernian to win” at 32.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for FK Partizan, 1.34 for Hibernian.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,485 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Partizan to win44.1%

Draw23.6%

Hibernian to win32.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,540 of 6,250 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FK Partizan win or draw67.7%

12 — any result other than a draw76.4%

X2 — draw or Hibernian win55.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.6%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.8%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Partizan score1.61

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Hibernian's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hibernian score1.34

Attack: Hibernian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%2–19.1%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1485 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 110 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.