UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Viking–Başakşehir

1–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 7 August 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'VikingS. Svendsen (assist: V. Berisha)
60'BaşakşehirDeniz Türüç (assist: Ömer Ali Şahiner)
79'BaşakşehirChristopher Operi (assist: Umut Güneş)
90'BaşakşehirDavie Selke (assist: Christopher Operi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Viking		Başakşehir
16	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
440	Passes	361
351	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Viking 2.34 · Başakşehir 1.21. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Viking 16 · Başakşehir 8; on target 4 and 3.
Viking kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Miguel Nogueira, Portugal→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.8%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “Başakşehir to win” at 18.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.34 for Viking, 1.21 for Başakşehir.
The highest double chance value is 81.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,917 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Viking to win62.8%

Draw18.5%

Başakşehir to win18.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Viking score2.34

Attack: Viking score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Başakşehir's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Başakşehir score1.21

Attack: Başakşehir score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Viking's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.5%1–17.9%2–07.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.