UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Maccabi Haifa–Torpedo Zhodino

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 31 July 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Maccabi HaifaDia Saba
22'Maccabi HaifaDolev Haziza
78'Maccabi HaifaT. Stewart

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Haifa 2.62 · Torpedo Zhodino 0.76. On the pitch: 3-0.

Referee

Samuel Barrott, England→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.4%: “Maccabi Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.62 for Maccabi Haifa, 0.76 for Torpedo Zhodino.
The highest double chance value is 91.4% (1X — Maccabi Haifa win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,447 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Haifa to win77.4%

Draw14.0%

Torpedo Zhodino to win8.6%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Haifa win or draw91.4%

12 — any result other than a draw86.0%

X2 — draw or Torpedo Zhodino win22.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (14.0%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score2.62

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Torpedo Zhodino concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.62 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Torpedo Zhodino score0.76

Attack: Torpedo Zhodino score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.7%3–010.2%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1447 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 103 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.