UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Maribor–Paks

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 31 July 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'MariborI. Tshipamba (assist: E. Taylor)
57'PaksK. Papp

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maribor 1.94 · Paks 1.25. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

Dennis Higler, Netherlands→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.8%: “Maribor to win”. Second comes “Paks to win” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for Maribor, 1.25 for Paks.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,150 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maribor to win53.8%

Draw21.5%

Paks to win24.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Maribor win or draw75.2%

12 — any result other than a draw78.5%

X2 — draw or Paks win46.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.5%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maribor score1.94

Attack: Maribor score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Paks's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Paks score1.25

Attack: Paks score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Maribor concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.7%2–19.7%1–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.