UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Cherno More Varna–Başakşehir

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 24 July 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'BaşakşehirÖmer Ali Şahiner (assist: Nuno Da Costa)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cherno More Varna 1.28 · Başakşehir 1.11. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

Luka Bilbija, Bosnia & Herzegovina→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.8%: “Cherno More Varna to win”. Second comes “Başakşehir to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Cherno More Varna, 1.11 for Başakşehir.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,833 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cherno More Varna to win40.8%

Draw26.8%

Başakşehir to win32.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Cherno More Varna win or draw67.6%

12 — any result other than a draw73.2%

X2 — draw or Başakşehir win59.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.8%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cherno More Varna score1.28

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Başakşehir's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Başakşehir score1.11

Attack: Başakşehir score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–012.1%0–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.