UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Viking–Koper

7–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 24 July 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'VikingS. Svendsen (assist: J. Bell)
57'VikingA. Baertelsen (assist: J. Bell)
59'VikingS. Svendsen (assist: Z. Tripić)
68'VikingZ. Tripić (assist: S. Bjorshol)
78'VikingH. Mikaelsson (penalty)
85'VikingH. Mikaelsson

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Viking 2.18 · Koper 1.05. On the pitch: 7-0.

Referee

Samuel Barrott, England→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.4%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.18 for Viking, 1.05 for Koper.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (1X — Viking win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,384 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Viking to win63.4%

Draw19.1%

Koper to win17.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Viking win or draw82.6%

12 — any result other than a draw80.9%

X2 — draw or Koper win36.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.1%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Viking score2.18

Attack: Viking score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Koper concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.18 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Koper score1.05

Attack: Koper score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Viking's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.9%2–09.4%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.