UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Hammarby FF–Charleroi

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 24 July 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hammarby FF 1.09 · Charleroi 1.22. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

Mathieu Vernice, France→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.4%: “Charleroi to win”. Second comes “Hammarby FF to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Hammarby FF, 1.22 for Charleroi.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,706 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hammarby FF to win33.1%

Draw27.5%

Charleroi to win39.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hammarby FF win or draw60.6%

12 — any result other than a draw72.5%

X2 — draw or Charleroi win66.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.5%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hammarby FF score1.09

Attack: Hammarby FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Charleroi's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charleroi score1.22

Attack: Charleroi score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hammarby FF concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%0–112.5%1–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.