SC Freiburg–Aston Villa

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 20 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'Aston VillaY. Tielemans (assist: M. Rogers)
45'Aston VillaE. Buendía (assist: J. McGinn)
58'Aston VillaM. Rogers (assist: E. Buendía)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		Aston Villa
4	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	8
5	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
366	Passes	356
309	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.49 · Aston Villa 1.27. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots SC Freiburg 4 · Aston Villa 17; on target 2 and 6.

Referee

François Letexier, France→

5.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “Aston Villa to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for SC Freiburg, 1.27 for Aston Villa.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,734 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win42.8%

Draw24.6%

Aston Villa to win32.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.49

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aston Villa score1.27

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–09.8%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.