SC Freiburg–SC Braga

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 7 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'SC BragaMario Dorgeles · red card
19'SC FreiburgL. Kübler
41'SC FreiburgJ. Manzambi (assist: P. Treu)
72'SC FreiburgL. Kübler (assist: V. Grifo)
79'SC BragaPau Víctor (assist: V. Gomez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		SC Braga
19	Shots	14
8	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
500	Passes	250
427	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.51 · SC Braga 1.24. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots SC Freiburg 19 · SC Braga 14; on target 8 and 5.
SC Freiburg kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Davide Massa, Italy→

4.46

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.9%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “SC Braga to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for SC Freiburg, 1.24 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,412 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win43.9%

Draw24.6%

SC Braga to win31.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.51

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score1.24

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–010.0%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.