Aston Villa–Nottingham Forest

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 7 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

36'Aston VillaO. Watkins (assist: E. Buendía)
58'Aston VillaE. Buendía (penalty)
77'Aston VillaJ. McGinn (assist: O. Watkins)
80'Aston VillaJ. McGinn (assist: M. Rogers)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aston Villa		Nottingham Forest
18	Shots	7
10	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
381	Passes	362
317	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aston Villa 1.43 · Nottingham Forest 1.12. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Aston Villa 18 · Nottingham Forest 7; on target 10 and 2.

Referee

Glenn Nyberg, Sweden→

4.12

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “Aston Villa to win”. Second comes “Nottingham Forest to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Aston Villa, 1.12 for Nottingham Forest.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,978 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aston Villa to win44.4%

Draw25.5%

Nottingham Forest to win30.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aston Villa score1.43

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nottingham Forest score1.12

Attack: Nottingham Forest score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%1–011.5%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.