Real Betis–SC Braga

2–4

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 16 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Real BetisAntony
26'Real BetisA. Ezzalzouli
38'SC BragaPau Víctor (assist: V. Gomez)
49'SC BragaVitor Carvalho (assist: R. Horta)
53'SC BragaR. Horta (penalty)
74'SC BragaJean-Baptiste Gorby

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Betis		SC Braga
11	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	1
2	Offsides	3
54%	Possession	46%
474	Passes	422
387	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Betis 1.66 · SC Braga 1.16. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Real Betis 11 · SC Braga 6; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

Davide Massa, Italy→

4.25

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.4%: “Real Betis to win”. Second comes “SC Braga to win” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Real Betis, 1.16 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,627 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Betis to win49.4%

Draw23.6%

SC Braga to win27.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Betis score1.66

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score1.16

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%1–010.2%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.