Nottingham Forest–FC Porto

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 16 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'FC PortoJ. Bednarek · red card
12'Nottingham ForestM. Gibbs-White (assist: N. Williams)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nottingham Forest		FC Porto
20	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
522	Passes	334
466	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nottingham Forest 0.91 · FC Porto 1.31. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Nottingham Forest 20 · FC Porto 10; on target 5 and 1.
Nottingham Forest kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Danny Makkelie, Netherlands→

3.33

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.2%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.91 for Nottingham Forest, 1.31 for FC Porto.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (X2 — draw or FC Porto win).
These values were computed from 2,636 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nottingham Forest to win26.3%

Draw27.5%

FC Porto to win46.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nottingham Forest score0.91

Attack: Nottingham Forest score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Porto score1.31

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–114.7%1–112.6%0–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.