SC Freiburg–Celta Vigo

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 9 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'SC FreiburgV. Grifo (assist: J. Manzambi)
32'SC FreiburgJ. Beste (assist: I. Matanović)
78'SC FreiburgM. Ginter (assist: J. Beste)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		Celta Vigo
13	Shots	4
7	Shots on target	0
8	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	0
1	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
506	Passes	475
437	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.47 · Celta Vigo 1.32. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots SC Freiburg 13 · Celta Vigo 4; on target 7 and 0.

Referee

Glenn Nyberg, Sweden→

4.21

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “Celta Vigo to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for SC Freiburg, 1.32 for Celta Vigo.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,610 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win41.0%

Draw24.6%

Celta Vigo to win34.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.47

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.32

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–09.4%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.