Real Betis–Panathinaikos

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Real BetisA. Ruibal
45'Real BetisS. Amrabat
53'Real BetisC. Hernández (assist: A. Ruibal)
66'Real BetisAntony (assist: A. Ezzalzouli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Betis		Panathinaikos
22	Shots	4
11	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
651	Passes	382
590	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Betis 2.07 · Panathinaikos 0.88. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Real Betis 22 · Panathinaikos 4; on target 11 and 2.
Real Betis kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Tobias Stieler, Germany→

3.56

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.4%: “Real Betis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.07 for Real Betis, 0.88 for Panathinaikos.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (1X — Real Betis win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,213 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Betis to win65.4%

Draw19.5%

Panathinaikos to win15.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

4	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Betis score2.07

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panathinaikos score0.88

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.3%1–011.1%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.