UEFA Europa League · Round of 16

AS Roma–Bologna

3–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

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Goals and red cards

22'BolognaJ. Rowe (assist: Santiago Castro)
32'AS RomaE. Ndicka (assist: L. Pellegrini)
45'BolognaFederico Bernardeschi (penalty)
58'BolognaSantiago Castro (assist: J. Rowe)
69'AS RomaDonyell Malen (penalty)
80'AS RomaL. Pellegrini

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		Bologna
24	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	9
18	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
701	Passes	467
572	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 1.38 · Bologna 0.94. On the pitch: 3-4.
Shots AS Roma 24 · Bologna 14; on target 7 and 9.
AS Roma kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Istvan Kovacs, Romania→

5.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.5%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for AS Roma, 0.94 for Bologna.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (1X — AS Roma win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,860 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win47.5%

Draw26.6%

Bologna to win25.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

21	Fouls	27

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score1.38

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bologna's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bologna score0.94

Attack: Bologna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.0%1–112.4%0–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.