SC Freiburg–Genk

5–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'SC FreiburgM. Ginter (assist: V. Grifo)
25'SC FreiburgI. Matanović (assist: M. Ginter)
39'GenkM. Smets (assist: K. Karetsas)
53'SC FreiburgV. Grifo
56'SC FreiburgY. Suzuki (assist: J. Manzambi)
79'SC FreiburgM. Eggestein (assist: Y. Suzuki)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		Genk
15	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
407	Passes	471
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.60 · Genk 1.15. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots SC Freiburg 15 · Genk 13; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

Michael Oliver, England→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “Genk to win” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for SC Freiburg, 1.15 for Genk.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,240 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win48.1%

Draw24.1%

Genk to win27.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	7

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.60

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genk score1.15

Attack: Genk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–010.6%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.