SC Braga–Ferencvarosi TC

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 18 March 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'SC BragaR. Horta (assist: R. Zalazar)
15'SC BragaF. Grillitsch
34'SC BragaG. Martinez (assist: Pau Víctor)
53'SC BragaR. Horta (assist: F. Grillitsch)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Ferencvarosi TC
9	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	2
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	1
3	Offsides	3
49%	Possession	51%
455	Passes	480
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 1.87 · Ferencvarosi TC 1.19. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots SC Braga 9 · Ferencvarosi TC 4; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

Glenn Nyberg, Sweden→

4.08

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.6%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “Ferencvarosi TC to win” at 24.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for SC Braga, 1.19 for Ferencvarosi TC.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,899 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win53.6%

Draw21.9%

Ferencvarosi TC to win24.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	15

5	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score1.87

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Ferencvarosi TC concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.87 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Ferencvarosi TC score1.19

Attack: Ferencvarosi TC score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.1%2–19.8%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.