Genk–SC Freiburg

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 12 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'GenkZ. El Ouahdi (assist: B. Heynen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Genk		SC Freiburg
17	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
396	Passes	398
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Genk 1.40 · SC Freiburg 1.39. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Genk 17 · SC Freiburg 5; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

Chris Kavanagh, England→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “SC Freiburg to win” at 37.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Genk, 1.39 for SC Freiburg.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,223 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Genk to win38.0%

Draw24.6%

SC Freiburg to win37.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Genk score1.40

Attack: Genk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.39

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–08.9%0–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.