Ferencvarosi TC–SC Braga

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 12 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Ferencvarosi TCG. Kanichowsky (assist: L. Joseph)
69'Ferencvarosi TCL. Joseph (assist: C. Makreckis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ferencvarosi TC		SC Braga
12	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	11
5	Offsides	0
30%	Possession	70%
265	Passes	643
208	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ferencvarosi TC 1.41 · SC Braga 1.58. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Ferencvarosi TC 12 · SC Braga 8; on target 3 and 4.
SC Braga kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Nick Walsh, Scotland→

4.39

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “Ferencvarosi TC to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Ferencvarosi TC, 1.58 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,887 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ferencvarosi TC to win34.4%

Draw23.6%

SC Braga to win42.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ferencvarosi TC score1.41

Attack: Ferencvarosi TC score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score1.58

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Ferencvarosi TC concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.58 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%1–28.9%0–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.